Feel the burn (but a good kind of burn)…. week 3 picks

By Fig Jam 

Before we get to Week 3’s picks, here’s a review of week 2’s action.

Lowlights:  It’s possible I hate the entire state of Oregon.  Oregon State was an absolute embarrassment to the PAC-10, and looked like a team that won’t win many games this season unless they find a new Quarterback.  Even Worse, Oregon absolutely stomped Michigan at the big house, prompting Phil Knight to erect a 1,000 foot monument of Mike Belotti in Times Square.  Whenever Duck fans are excited, they start plastering the streets of Manhattan with paraphernalia for some reason.    

Highlights:  Washington snapped the nation’s longest winning streak in defeating Boise State.  Boise fans, unable to fathom how a program built on months of tradition and one notable bowl victory could ever lose, could be seen somberly boarding their John Deere tractors for the 30 hour plow back to wherever it is in rural Idaho that they live.  Elsewhere, the Cougs, Bruins, and Devils all had nice victories and covered their respective spreads.

Week 2 record: 

6-2 overall

5-3 against the spread.

Season totals: 

14-3 overall

12-5 against the spread.

WEEK 3 PICKS…

Ohio St. at Washington (line: Ohio St. -4)

Analysis:  Ok, lets start with the Huskies.  They have played on the road against a BCS opponent (albeit a bad one), and at home against a ranked opponet.  They have created turnovers on defense and done a decent job of acclimating Freshman QB Jake Locker into the new spread offense. There are still questions about whether the O-line can run block for Louis Rankin, and whether Locker can play consistently for an entire game.  The Defense has looked solid, but the inexperienced secondary really has not been challenged by a quality QB throwing to good WR’s.  As for Ohio St., they have played Youngstown St. and Akron, both games at home, and have not really been tested whatsoever.  Their Defense looks stellar, but to be honest, I can’t tell if that means that they are really a dominant unit, or if their superior athletes have just been able to overwhelm undermanned opponents thus far in the season.  Their front 7 does have the potential to be special.  On Offense they have struggled a little bit.  They have a big bruising RB in Wells and a QB who thus far has not had to make big plays for his team to win.  They are young and somewhat inexperienced, which has lead to some turnover problems.  If UW has any advantage on the field this weekend, it is their Defense against OSU’s offense.

Pick:  Husky Stadium will be pumped up for this game.  The dawgs will be playing in front of 70,000+ for the second week in a row, and should come out firing on all cylinders.  Ohio St. is Ohio st.  plain and simple.  They have blue-chip talent at every position, BUT, for the first time in a long time, find themselves inexperienced when playing in a hostile environment.  For that reason, I give the nod to the Dawgs to win this game outright.  Washington wins - 24-21.  (obviously I wasn’t going to pick against UW…. but at least this time I included some analysis)  

Fresno St. at Oregon (Line: Oregon -16)

Analysis:  Fresno St. took Texas A&M to three overtimes last week in what was one of the best games of the college football season to date.  They have experience at the QB position and a talented Defense.  They gave up too many yards rushing against A&M (over 300), but they did play 3 overtimes as well, so that number is a little skewed.  They also are getting Jason Shirley, startind defensive tackle, back after a 2 game suspension.  Oregon just rolled Michigan last week.  They offense is averaging almost 550 yards a game, but their defense has been sketchy, and is ranked 98th nationally, so their offense needs to be good.  The Oregon duck mascot is suspended for this game however, for kicking the crap out of the Houston Cougar in Oregon’s first game.     

Pick:  Oregon wins, but their defense is suspect and they don’t cover against a Fresno Team that proved it can score on the road last week.  Oregon wins 35-28. 

Idaho at Washington St. (Washington St. -25.5)

Analysis:  Washington St. plays their former assistant coach Robb Akey this week when he brings his Idaho squad all the way from Moscow (8 miles).  The lead up to the game has been nauseating as each side tries to jerk the other off more in terms of who respects who, etc.  Bottom line, this game should be terrible.  Brink will throw to some guys who are down the field and Idaho won’t cover those guys, thereby allowing WSU to score.

Pick:  WSU wins, but doesn’t cover.  WSU 30 Idaho 10. 

UCLA at Utah (UCLA – 14)

Analysis: Utah is only averaging 9.5 points per game.  Last week Air Force ran for 334 yards on them.  Their QB and RB are still hurt.  Look out. 

Pick:  UCLA wins big.  UCLA 45 Utah 10

USC at Nebraska (USC -9.5)

Analysis:  Gameday crew will be there for this one, and it should be a great game.   USC is not invincible.  At least not the way they played at home against Idaho.  They only gained 429 yards on offense and gave up 272 on defense.  They have a TON of talent, but a lot of that talent is young and has never played a game with the kind of atmosphere that the Cornhuskers are going to provide.  Nebraska, on the other hand, barely beat Wake Forest last week 20-17, and now must prepare for what is sure to be the biggest game in Lincoln in the past several years (possibly ever?).  They are a well balanced team, but probably not quite ready to step up into the ranks of the elite.  I do think that USC is a little overrated at this point (just based on the Idaho game), and needs a few of their heralded recruits to step up and become stars in order for them to live up to their hype.

Pick:  I’m picking the upset.  Nebraska is game tested and USC isn’t.  Lincoln will be off the hook and the Cornhuskers win the game 30-24.

San Diego St at Arizona St. (ASU – 28)

Analysis:  No analysis required.  bad game.

Pick: ASU 45 SDSU 10

New Mexico at Arizona (zona – 10)

Analysis:  Arizona is really not very good, but neither is New Mexico.   Arizona has a terrible offense and a mediocre defense and New Mexico has a decent offense but doesn’t bother on D.  Picking this game is difficult based on the total apathy surrounding it.  Perhaps a picture of a good looking Arizona Coed will get me in the right frame of mind.

Pick:  Yep.  Arizona wins but doesn’t cover (get it?): 35-31.

San Jose St. at Stanford (Stanford -7)

Analysis:  SJSU isn’t a terrible team, but I got a feeling about the fighting trees. I think they come out and give Mr. Harbaugh a nice win here.

pick:  Stanford 28, SJSU 14.

Lousiana Tech. at Cal (Cal – 33.5)

Analysis: why is this game happening?  Who’s idea was it?  What is either team going to gain from this?

Pick:  Cal 52 Lt 14. 

Idaho St. at Oregon st. (no line)

Analysis:  This game is apparently not important enough to have a line.  According the website I use, this game isn’t happening.  I actually like that attitude.  OSU doesn’t deserve a line after last week’s debacle and REALLY doesn’t deserve to be playing a game against Idaho St.  What kind of crap is that?  The Beavers truly are pussies for scheduling this crap.  I’ll set my own line for purposes of my pick at Beavers -30.

Pick:  Oregon St. 40 ISU 7.