Know Your Enemy: 2008 San Francisco 49ers

Constable Echelon celebrates the NFL season by previewing the hometown Seattle Seahawks’ opponents in the NFC West.

San Francisco are the no longer the 49ers. They are the nine balls. Or the nines. As detailed in last year’s preview, this term originates from my buddy J Weidz(take that Simmons!), Bay born and bred. A nine ball is someone or something that is acting irrationally/stupid. Much like this franchise recently.

Since San Francisco’s last playoff year in 2002, they are 25-56. That’s more than two losses for every win, folks. After a disastrous 2-14 year under Dennis Erickson in 2004, former Ravens assistant Mike Nolan was brought on board to restore the glory. Does anything say “The thing is, we really don’t care” like hiring Dennis Erickson in the pros? I say no.

After three years of more of the same Nolan is now coaching for his job. The stress has clearly gotten to him. In an effort to fix up a now annually floundering offense, Nolan brought in GURU Mike Martz.

This hiring brings to mind a sequence from John Feinstein’s excellent book Next Man Up about the Ravens disappointing 2005 campaign. During a game against Buffalo then Ravens offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh went in with a pass heavy (Kyle Boller) game plan to compensate for the injured Jamal Lewis. At one point Boller threw for no gain on first down, incomplete on second, and then got bailed out by a 12 yard run from Chester Taylor on third down. The next first down Boller threw incomplete again prompting an explosion from Nolan.

“What the hell are you doing!”…”Pass, pass, pass, what the fuck are you thinking?”

So, you tell me how this Mike Nolan – Mike Martz relationship is going to work.

Offense

Citing a dramatically improved completion percentage from 2005 to 2006, I really thought Alex Smith was going to be decent in 2007. Oops. Turns out he’s on the Ki-Jana Carter plan for former 1st overall selections. In retrospect, he played in a Urban Meyer’s spread at Utah so everyone should have seen this coming. Gimmick offense + sub par competition = unreliable predictor of pro success.

So here come the Martzes. Out: Alex Smith, In: J.T. O’Sullivan. In: the ghost of Isaac Bruce, and Cardinals first round bust Bryant Johnson. Bryant Johnson is an interesting player. He’s in the Vladimir Radmanovich mold in terms of all the talent, none of the drive. Johnson has fantastic speed and good hands, but could really care less. I admire a healthy disregard for god-given ability in a man from an aesthetic standpoint. But if I were trying to, say, “win games” – I wouldn’t necessarily want guys like that around.

“Hmm, let’s try this: You’re benched.”

Really though when you talk about the 49ers offense you’re talking about Frank Gore. After a monster 2006 where Frank Gore touched the ball over 370 times, he predictably regressed a little last year due to overuse. In 2007 Gore saw a more reasonable 313 touches, which is more palatable from a career longevity standpoint.

Michael Turner’s week one explosion aside, Frank Gore is the premier freight train in the NFL. He is just a frightening combination of size (listed falsely at 215), speed, and aggression. Gore rightly strikes fear into opposing defensive fronts, especially if said fronts are undersized (read: Seahawks). The problem for Gore is that San Francisco must show an ability to make teams pay downfield for putting 8 in the box.

Defense

Similar to their offensive line, the 49ers defensive line really doesn’t allow the top notch players they have to shine. They attempted to address this problem by selecting North Carolina DT Kentwan Balmer in first round. Paired with behemoth Isaac Sopoaga (listed absurdly light at 325) there’s hope up the middle on the d-line.

The problem is on the edge, where the nines have no one who can get to the quarterback. They signed Cincinnati washout Justin Smith to bring something, but it’s pretty much a bag of poop for them at DE. If you haven’t noticed, most all good teams have premier players at that spot because of how disruptive good ends can be to opposing offenses (see Giants, New York – Superbowl)

The lack of a pass rush limits the effectiveness of last year’s free agent coup Nate Clements. Clements is a lock down corner, but even the best can only cover for so long. Opposing QBs have time to drop back, do their taxes while they wait for receivers to clear, and then feast against the Nines. By the time the team addresses this problem, Clements will be in his twilight years. The NFL is cruel.

San Francisco ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed last year, but only 29th in interceptions. I think their bad ranking in passing yards is actually inflated by the fact that teams don’t really need to air it out to beat them. It doesn’t take a ton of points to put them away, after all.

The unquestioned star of the defense is second year inside linebacker Pat Willis. The pro bowl selection is a lightning fast tackling machine. With San Francisco’s decent size in the middle of the d line and an offense that will keep the defense on the field, Willis is primed for another huge statistical year.

Intangibles/Projection

Mike Nolan and Mike Martz go together like pancakes and goat urine. I feel bad for Nolan, who I think is a good coach who walked into an impossible situation. The Martz hire reeks of desperation and can only end poorly. “Pass, pass, pass, what the fuck are you thinking?”

The best thing the Nines have going for them is that teams play to the level of competition in the NFL. Good teams don’t want to show anything out of their playbook against them, which will lead to an illusion of competitiveness. Not any more wins mind you, but competitive losses. I see 4-6 wins, and if they don’t draft a defensive end in the first round next year I will be shocked. At least Mike Nolan will look sharp.

(But win one could easily come this Sunday against a reeling Seahawks squad whose deficiencies play right into Nine Ball hands.)

Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference

Next Man Up – John Feinstein (Amazon – a steal at $7.99)

Tags: Frank Gore, Know Your Enemy, Mike Nolan, Nine Bals, Pat Willis, San Francisco 49ers