An Upset For Every Seed

Sager Bombs

If you’re like me, you don’t really like betting on the favorites in the first round of the NCAA tournament. For one thing, an outright win by an underdog screws with other people’s brackets.  I already know I have no chance in hell of winning my tournament pool but I like it when other people realize that as well.  Second, it gives Gus Johnson a chance to scream, and we all know he doesn’t do that for just anyone.  Third, you can win money.  IN THIS ECONOMY that is important.  I’m going to go down the line and give you one team from each high seed that I think has a chance to win outright.  Take the points with these guys and win yourself some money.  This time next week we’ll all be wearing… well, you know.

Before I start, a quick note: please don’t break my legs if I’m wrong.

9 - Siena +3.5 over Ohio State. Ohio State is young, plays small, and likes to shoot.  Siena plays a similar style but is a little older, a little bigger, and won a first round game last year as a 13 seed.  Plus, 3.5 points in the 8-9 game is decent value.  Also: stay far far away from the Tennessee game.  UT might be the most inconsistent and frustrating team in all of college basketball.  They could win or lose that game by 20.

10 -  Everyone and their mother likes USC here… to the point where the 10-seed is actually favored by the oddsmakers.  Fuck that.  You want value?  Take Minnesota +4 over Texas.  Texas is offensively challenged to put it nicely, and this young Golden Gophers team has more depth and nearly as much game on D.  I don’t expect much from the Big 10 outside of Michigan State this tournament, but this is a game Minnesota can win, and you better believe Tubby Smith will have them fired up, if only to thumb his nose at his old employer.

11- Utah State +4.5 over Marquette.  I know you can get more points with other matchups but hear me out… Marquette lost their starting point guard Dominic James to a season ending foot injury.  Now they’ve got a 5′8″ transfer running the point.  Feel good about that?  Did I mention they’ll be playing Marquette in Boise, which is an easy drive for their fans?  Boise: not so easy for Marquette fans to reach.  Real easy to imagine a situation where the new kid makes a lot of TO’s for the favored team, the efficient Utah State offense slowly builds a lead, and the Boise crowd starts throwing their weight behind the WAC team.  Be scared. 

12 – Confession time: I hate picking a 12-5 upset, and I REALLY don’t like it when you factor in the points.  Not much value here, and I definitely don’t get Arizona being favored over Utah.  If you put a gun to my head I’m taking Western Kentucky +5 over Illinois.  Not so much because I love WKU, but I hate Illinois and their goal of winning every game 42-41.  They’re the midwest WSU, and no one deserves that.  Western made a nice little run last year and there’s no reason to think they don’t have 48 points in them this time around.

13 – Give me Ken Bone and Portland State +11 over Xavier.  Yes, my mancrush on Ken Bone has been documented here before, but I really think this is a favorable matchup.  Xavier has size but they can be inconsistent and PSU plays solid and loves to shoot the three.  If they can get ‘em falling it’s going to be tight down the stretch.

14 – American +17.5 versus Villanova.  Hey, did you know Nova gets to play at home?  Well don’t tell anyone but it turns out American U ain’t too far from Philly either.  Oh, and they start 5 seniors.  Oh, and they gave 2-seed Tennessee fits last year.  Will they actually win?  God, they probably have no shot but seeds 14-16 rarely do.  HOWEVUH they have a good shot at covering. 

15 – Morgan State +16.5.  Why Morgan State?  They beat Maryland earlier in the year, Oklahoma might rest Griffin in the second half if they feel comfortable, and Morgan State was mentioned in We Thuggin’.  If you need more than Fat Joe and R. Kelly when you’re picking upset gambling specials, well… you’re probably looking on the wrong website. 

16 – First things first here.  Chattanooga is going to get absolutely murdered and I’m making these picks before the play-in game, so I don’t have much to work with here.  I’ll follow history and back ETSU +20 over PIttsburgh.  ETSU loves to run and the school came the closest any team has ever come to knocking off a number one.  So, um, there’s that.

Next week: a discussion on what color to paint our new moneybins!